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1. The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulty obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our popular alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. Given the outcry from our customers when we discontinued this product and the fact that none of our competitors offers a comparable product, we can expect pent-up consumer demand for our alpaca coats. Due to this demand and the overall increase in clothing prices, we can predict that Sartorian's alpaca overcoats will be more profitable than ever before."
下面这段文字出自一家生产男士服装的公司Sartorian新的副总裁的备忘录。
五年前，当我们在获取可靠的高质量羊毛毛料的渠道方面存在困难的时候，我们停止了时尚羊毛外衣的生产。现在有了新的毛料供应商，我们应该重新开始生产。这种外衣应该卖得很好，因为我们已经五年没有供应羊毛外衣了，而且由于我们的主要竞争对手已不再生产羊毛外衣，消费者将有很迫切的需求。这种需求和服装价格的整体上涨将使Sartorian的羊毛外衣比以前更赚钱。
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
2. The following appeared in an e-mail sent by the marketing director of the Classical Shakespeare Theatre of Bardville.
"Over the past ten years, there has been a 20 percent decline in the size of the average audience at Classical Shakespeare Theatre productions. In spite of increased advertising, we are attracting fewer and fewer people to our shows, causing our profits to decrease significantly. We must take action to attract new audience members. The best way to do so is by instituting a 'Shakespeare in the Park' program this summer. Two years ago the nearby Avon Repertory Company started a 'Free Plays in the Park' program, and its profits have increased 10 percent since then. If we start a 'Shakespeare in the Park' program, we can predict that our profits will increase, too."
下面这段文字出自Classical Shakespeare Theatre of Bardville市场经理的一封E-mail.
在过去十年中，。尽管广告增加了，但是我们吸引的观众越来越少，收益也随之急剧下降。我们必须采取措施吸引新观众。最好的方法就是在今年夏天开展'Shakespeare in the Park'活动。两年前附近的Avon Repertory Company开展了一场'Free Plays in the Park'活动，它的收益由此增加了10%。如果我们也开展这样的活动，我们的收益也会增加。
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
3. The following is a recommendation from the business manager of Monarch Books.
"Since its opening in Collegeville twenty years ago, Monarch Books has developed a large customer base due to its reader-friendly atmosphere and wide selection of books on all subjects. Last month, Book and Bean, a combination bookstore and coffee shop, announced its intention to open a Collegeville store. Monarch Books should open its own in-store café in the space currently devoted to children's books. Given recent national census data indicating a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten, sales of children's books are likely to decline. By replacing its children's books section with a café, Monarch Books can increase profits and ward off competition from Book and Bean."
下面是Monarch Books业务经理的一封建议书。
自从在Collegeville开业20年来，Monarch Books拥有了庞大的用户群，这要归功于它为读者提供良好的阅读环境和广泛的选择余地。上个月，一个集书店和咖啡馆于一体的店Book and Bean宣布它有意在Collegeville开一家店。Monarch Books应该把现在的儿童图书区改为室内咖啡馆。国家调查的数据显示10岁以下的儿童比重可能下降。用咖啡馆代替儿童图书区，Monarch Books可以增加利润并且防止来自Book and Bean的竞争。
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
4. The following is a recommendation from the business manager of Monarch Books.
"Since its opening in Collegeville twenty years ago, Monarch Books has developed a large customer base due to its reader-friendly atmosphere and wide selection of books on all subjects. Last month, Book and Bean, a combination bookstore and coffee shop, announced its intention to open a Collegeville store. Monarch Books should open its own in-store café in the space currently devoted to children's books. Given recent national census data indicating a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten, sales of children's books are likely to decline. By replacing its children's books section with a café, Monarch Books can increase profits and ward off competition from Book and Bean."
下面是Monarch Books业务经理的一封建议书。
自从在Collegeville开业20年来，Monarch Books拥有了庞大的用户群，这要归功于它为读者提供良好的阅读环境和广泛的选择余地。上个月，一个集书店和咖啡馆于一体的店Book and Bean宣布它有意在Collegeville开一家店。Monarch Books应该把现在的儿童图书区改为室内咖啡馆。国家调查的数据显示10岁以下的儿童比重可能下降。用咖啡馆代替儿童图书区，Monarch Books可以增加利润并且防止来自Book and Bean的竞争。
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
5. The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"Jazz music is extremely popular in the city of Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Also, a number of well-known jazz musicians own homes in Monroe. Nevertheless, the nearest jazz club is over an hour away. Given the popularity of jazz in Monroe and a recent nationwide study indicating that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment, a jazz music club in Monroe would be tremendously profitable."
下面这段文字节选自Monroe市一群创业者申请小企业贷款的申请书。
爵士乐在Monroe非常流行。去年夏天10万多人参加了Monroe的爵士音乐节，Monroe收视率最高的广播节目是每周末晚上播出的Jazz Nightly。而且若干知名爵士音乐家居住在Monroe。不过最近的爵士俱乐部也有一个小时的车程。一项全国性研究表明典型的爵士爱好者每年花费近1000美元用于爵士娱乐，在Monroe建立爵士乐俱乐部将会是非常盈利的产业。
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
