Arg-38
The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing:
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."
【满分范文赏析】
In this memo the vice president of Sartorian, a clothing manufacturer, argues that by resuming production of alpaca (wool) overcoats, after a five-year hiatus, that increased demand would spur an increase its profits. To support this argument the vice president points out that Sartorian now has a reliable fabric supplier and reasons that since Sartorian's chief competitor has discontinued making these coats there must be pent-up consumer demand for them. The vice president also reasons that, since overall clothing prices have risen in each of the last five years, consumers will be willing to pay higher prices for Sartorian's alpaca coats. The assumptions upon which the recommendation is founded are unsubstantiated.
【本段结构】
本文采用了标准的Argument开头段结构，即C—A—F的开头结构。本段首先概括原文的Conclusion，之后简要提及原文为支持其结论所引用的一系列Assumption及细节，最后给出开头段到正文段的过渡句，指出原文的Flaw，即这些Assumption无法让原文的结论具有说服力。
【本段功能】
作为Argument开头段，本段具体功能就在于发起攻击并概括原文的结论，即Sartorian应当恢复Alpaca大衣的生产。本段接下来提到了原文中为支持之前的Conclusion所提供的证据，包括现在Sartorian有了可靠的羊毛原料供应商，Alpaca羊毛大衣需求量肯定很高，以及大衣的价格非常有利可图。文章提及这些信息，为是在正文段中对这些Assumption即将进行的具体攻击做铺垫。
To begin with, the argument relies on the assumption that the new fabric supplier will be a reliable supplier of alpaca. Yet the memo provides no substantiating evidence for this assumption. Perhaps the supply problems Sartorian experienced years earlier were attributable not to its supplier at the time but rather to factors beyond any supplier's control and which might render the alpaca supply today just as unreliable as it was in the past.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第一个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。
【本段功能】
作为正文第一段，本段攻击原文所犯的第一个重要逻辑错误——类比类错误。原文假设，当前的供应商能提供高质量的羊毛原料。但是，过去不存在可靠的供应商，并不代表现在的这个供应商一定是可靠的。因此原文的这个对过去和现在的类比假设不能成立。
Further, even if the new supplier turns out to be reliable, the memo assumes too hastily, on the basis of a competitor's discontinuing alpaca coat production, that consumer demand for alpaca coats is now pent-up. Perhaps that competitor stopped making alpaca coats due to diminishing consumer demand for them. Or, perhaps other clothing manufacturers are now beginning to fill the market void by producing similar coats. Either of these scenarios would devastate the argument.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第二个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。
【本段功能】
作为正文第二段，本段攻击原文所犯的第二个重要逻辑错误——因果类错误。原文说道，因为Sartorian不再生产这种羊毛大衣，消费者对这个大衣的需求量肯定会供不应求。但是，这样的因果关系不一定成立，同时存在其他因素能够影响到消费者对大衣的需求。因此在没有考虑到这种因果关系不一定成立的情况下，原文的这个假设是不合理的。
Thirdly, even if the vice president can substantiate the two foregoing assumptions, the argument relies on the additional assumption that consumers will be willing to pay a higher price. While that could certainly be verified, it is possible that Sartorian's costs for alpaca wool higher than 5 years ago. Also, the fact that clothing prices have been steadily increasing for five years suggests that consumers might have less disposable income for purchasing items such as alpaca coats, especially if consumers' income has not kept pace with rising prices. Without evidence that consumers would be both willing and able to pay high prices the argument is unconvincing.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第三个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。
【本段功能】
作为正文第三段，本段攻击原文所犯的第三个重要逻辑错误——因果类错误。虽然服装的整体价格是上升了，这不代表Sartorian的大衣一定能盈利，因为有可能它的生产成本也上升了，同时有可能消费者的购买能力并没有成比例的上升。因此，在没有考虑这些因素的情况下，原文并不能证明服装的整体价格上升一定能够带来利润。
Finally, even if Sartorian would turn a profit from the sale of its alpaca coats, the memo's claim that the company's overall profits would increase is still unreasonable. Sartorian's overall profitability is a function of revenue and expenses. Since the memo provides no evidence that Sartorian will continue to be profitable in other respects, the recommendation based on the information provided should not be considered.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第四个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。
【本段功能】
作为正文第四段，本段攻击原文所犯的第四个重要逻辑错误——因果类错误。原文当中既然Sartorian能够从恢复生产的羊毛大衣中会的利润，那么Sartorian的整体利润肯定可能因此上升。但是，公司盈利牵扯到很多其他因素。单一的羊毛大衣带来的利润并不能保证Sartorian能够在整体上是盈利的。所以，在没有考虑其它相关因素的情况下，原文的结论并不成立。
In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing. However, it is still possible that the recommendation is a valuable one. In order to prove as much, an audience would need to know a couple things: whether or not new supplier will be a reliable and affordable alpaca supplier, and whether or not consumers will be able and willing to pay a profitable price. To better assess the argument an audience needs to know more about supply and demand in relation to the coats in question. An audience would also benefit from a detailed financial report of the company that could indicate whether or not the circumstances, on a whole, would be favorable to such a decision.
【本段结构】
本段采用了标准的Argument结尾段结构，即C—S的结尾结构。首先再次重申原文Conclusion是站不住脚的，接下来给出可以增强原文说服力的合理的Suggestion，包括原文作者需要进一步提供的证据和细节信息等。
【本段功能】
段作为结尾段，具体功能即为总结归纳+提出建议。段落首先再次重申强调原文作者的论证不合理，接下来给出合理的建议：作者必须证明新的原料供应商的确是可靠的，以及顾客的确愿意给出的价格的确是有利可图的。此外，作者必须阐明当前羊毛大衣的需求关系，以及Sartorian公司的整体盈利状况和前景。不难发现，结尾段总结提出的建议与正文各段中依次攻击的错误遥相呼应，即分别对应了类比类错误和因果类错误，这使全篇文章显得浑然一体。
【满分要素剖析】
【语言表达】
本文的语言使用规范、清晰，词汇也用得准确地道，并使用多变的句式让考官读起来津津有味，这些都是
1) In this memo the vice president of Sartorian, a clothing manufacturer, argues that…(标志性的Argument开头段引出原文结论的语言表达形式。)To support this argument the vice president points out that… The vice president also reasons that… The assumptions upon which the recommendation is founded are unsubstantiated.(标志性的指出文章错误的语言表达。整体开头段是标准的C—A—F的语言和逻辑模版体系。)
2) Even if… the memo assumes too hastily, on the basis of… Perhaps… due to… Or, perhaps…(标志性的存在他因导致因果类错误的语言和逻辑模版体系。)
3) Finally, even if… the memo's claim that… is still unreasonable. Sartorian's overall profitability is a function of revenue and expenses. Since the memo provides no evidence that… the recommendation based on the information provided should not be considered.(标志性因为成本与收入因素导致因果类错误的语言和逻辑模版体系。)
4) In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing. However, it is still possible that the recommendation is a valuable one. In order to prove as much, an audience would need to know a couple things… To better assess the argument an audience needs to know more about… An audience would also benefit from…(标志性的Argument结尾段Conclusion-Suggestion体系的语言和逻辑模版体系。)
【逻辑结构】
本文的写作体现出了非常严谨的开头段—正文段1、2、3、4—结尾段的逻辑体系：
(开头段)In this memo the vice president argues that…
(正文段1)To begin with, the argument relies on the assumption that…
(正文段2)Further, even if…the memo assumes too hastily
(正文段3)Thirdly, even if… the memo's claim that …
(正文段4)Finally, the recommendation assumes that…
(结尾段)In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing. However, it is still possible that the recommendation is a valuable one…
特别注意的是，在文章第二段攻击完第一个假设后，在接下来的三段中，分别使用了“Even if”来引导让步，即“Even if the new supplier turns out to be reliable… Even if the vice president can substantiate the two foregoing assumption… Finally, even if Sartorian would turn a profit from the sale of its alpaca coats”，这样的让步能够非常严谨的引出对接下来逻辑错误的攻击，体现了文章严密的整体逻辑分析思路。
