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The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where consumption of the plant beneficia is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of beneficia can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of nutritional supplements derived from beneficia. We predict this will dramatically reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces."
下面这段记录出自West Meria Public Health Council的新闻报道。
我们注意到一种可以显著减少学校和单位缺勤的革新疗法。一项研究报告说在附近的East Meria，一种叫做beneficia的的植物的消费量很高，那里的人们每年因为治感冒而去看医生的次数只有一或两次。显然，吃大量的beneficia可以预防感冒。由于感冒是学校和单位缺席的最常见原因，我们建议每天服用Ichthaid，一种从beneficia中提炼的营养物质。我们预计这将大大降低学校和单位的缺勤率。
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
164. The following was written by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. At present, the nearest jazz club is over 60 miles away from Monroe; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. In addition, there is ample evidence of the popularity of jazz in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly.' Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. We therefore predict that the C Note cannot help but make money."
下面这段文字是Monroe市一群创业者写的。
在Monroe建立爵士乐俱乐部将会是非常盈利的产业。当前，最近的爵士乐俱乐部也在60英里以外;因此，我们筹建的俱乐部C Note将会占有全部的本地市场。而且，爵士乐在Monroe非常流行：去年夏天10万多人参加了Monroe的爵士音乐节，若干知名爵士音乐家居住在Monroe，Monroe获评价最高的广播节目是平时每天播出的Jazz Nightly。最后，一项全国性研究表明典型的爵士爱好者每年花费近1000元用于爵士娱乐。因此，我们预计C Note不可能不赚钱。
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
165. Humans arrived in the Kaliko Islands about 7,000 years ago, and within 3,000 years most of the large mammal species that had lived in the forests of the Kaliko Islands were extinct. Previous archaeological findings have suggested that early humans generally relied on both fishing and hunting for food; since archaeologists have discovered numerous sites in the Kaliko Islands where the bones of fish were discarded, it is likely that the humans also hunted the mammals. Furthermore, researchers have uncovered simple tools, such as stone knives, that could be used for hunting. The only clear explanation is that humans caused the extinction of the various mammal species through excessive hunting.
人类在大约7000年前到达了Kaliko岛，并且在3000年内，这种生活在Kaliko森林中的大型哺乳物种大都灭绝了。先前的考古发现表明早期的人类主要靠捕鱼和打猎获取食物，因为考古学家发现Kaliko岛有多处鱼骨头被遗弃的地方，人类很可能也猎杀哺乳动物。另外，研究者还发现了简单的工具，比如可以用来打猎的石刀。唯一清晰的解释是人类的过渡捕猎导致各种哺乳动物物种的灭绝。
Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.
