下面就是
1.The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.
"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."
A、跑鞋和运动服装卖得好并不一定说明P地区的居民关注健康生活，可能因为这样的商店比较少，因此即使是绝对数字不大的居民购买也会形成“卖得好”的情况。同样，健康俱乐部体重练习和厌氧练习班满员也不能说明，因为同样可能因为这样的俱乐部很少。
B、即使跑鞋、运动服装卖得好，健康俱乐部满员，是因为P地区的居民关注健康生活，也不一定适合在P地区开设Nature's Way的商店。因为正如作者所说的，他是根据以往在其他地区的经验得出的，而其他地方成功的做法在P地区并不一定同样取得成功。因为P地区的居民的喜好可能有所不同。
C、另外，学生被要求参加“fitness for life”项目，并不一定他们就开始关注健康生活了;即使他们开始关注，也不一定会喜欢Nature's Way的健康食品以及相关产品。每个人都有自己独特的喜好。
2.The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.
"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting."
A、B地区提出了这样的要求，但是B地区的居民是否真正严格执行了这个要求，作者并没有提及。如果该地区居民并没有严格按照该规则执行，则作者之后的推测就完全站不住脚了。
B、即使B地区的居民严格执行了该规则，也不一定是促成B地区平均价值增长3倍原因。因为造成平均价值增长的原因还有很多，比如通货膨胀，购买需求增长等。
C、即使B地区平均价值增长3倍是由于该规则，那也是7年前到现在的情况，并不能够保证今后还能继续增长下去。人们对房屋的评判标准是会随着时间改变的，可能今后人们更加关注于房屋的结构、房屋的地理位置以及周围环境等。
D、即使还能够继续增长下去，那也是B地区，D地区即使采用了相同的措施也不一定能够获得同样的成功，因为两个地区毕竟有很多的不同，例如D地区的居民可能不太喜欢这样的要求，该地区的居民可能更加关注于房屋的物理结构以及价格等。
3.The following appeared in a newspaper article about law firms in the city of Megalopolis.
"In Megalopolis, the number of law school graduates who went to work for large, corporate firms declined by 15 percent over the last three years, whereas an increasing number of graduates took jobs at small, general practice firms. Even though large firms usually offer much higher salaries, law school graduates are choosing to work for the smaller firms most likely because they experience greater job satisfaction at smaller firms. In a survey of first-year students at a leading law school, most agreed with the statement that earning a high salary was less important to them than job satisfaction. This finding suggests that the large, corporate firms of Megalopolis will need to offer graduates more benefits and incentives and reduce the number of hours they must work."
A、去大公司的人数下降并不一定说明毕业生不想去大公司，可能是由于应届毕业生的总人数下降了。
B、调查的范围(spectrum)太小了，仅仅调查了在顶尖法律学校的一年级学生，这样的样本并不能够代表整个法律学校的学生，另外，样本选择的随机性是否得到保证作者也没有给出相应的证明。
C、作者错误地假设了只要大公司向毕业生提供更多的薪水，一个更短的工作时间，就能够让学生感受到更好的工作满足感(job satisfaction)，工作满足感还和其他很多因素有关，例如办公地点的环境，办公地点里员工家庭住址的距离等。
4.The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.
"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town-Adams Realty and Fitch Realty-Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams."
A、F公司有25名员工，很多员工是兼职，而A公司有40名员工，这并不能说明A公司要比F公司好。F公司的25名员工，虽然其中很多是兼职，但是他们可能工作的经历更长，经验更丰富，工作效率更高。
B、两家公司的平均房屋销售价并不一定存在可比性，因为两家公司可能卖的房屋的类型不一样，可能A公司卖中、大型商品房，而F公司卖小型商品房，这样A公司的平均价格自然要比F公司高。
C、A公司卖房子比F公司快，并不一定说明A公司的销售能力就要比F公司好，因为两间房子并不是一样的，可能一间房子好一些，而另一间相对要差一些，地理位置因素，房屋结构，新旧等。
D、即使说明A公司的销售能力比F公司好，那也是十年前的F公司和去年的A公司，都不能够代表现在的两家公司。因为随着时间变化，两家公司都可能会产生很大的变化。即使现在A公司仍然要比F公司的销售能力好，那也只能说明销售作者的那两套房子上的能力不同，并不一定能够代表两家公司其他方面的销售能力。
5.The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.
"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis."
A、作者的所有推理都是建立在一开始的假设上的，如果该假设不成立，则作者其他所有推理都将不成立，而在未来风湿病患者增长40 million到60 million作者并没有给出可以让人信服的证据，因此该假设很可能不成立。
B、即使该假设成立，B公司也不一定能够抓到高利润。根据经济学常识，利润等于销售额减去成本。如果B公司开发以及生产X药的成本很高，那么即使销售不错，也可能不盈利，甚至亏本。
C、对于P公司的X(Xylan)药，临床研究的样本数太少，只有10个病人，而且这10个病人都是严重的风湿病，以此该样本并不能够代表所有的风湿病患者。
D、即使能够代表所有的风湿病患者，也存在着利润问题，高成本的话就不一定能够产生利润了。
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